Nicola Willis says she’s cutting spending, trimming the fat, and bringing fiscal discipline back to Government. But when you look closely, it’s less “responsible budgeting”… and more creative fudging.

We’re sending a box of Nicola’s Fudge to Members of Parliament and journalists across the country to help them taste just how sweet and sticky the spin really is.

Bigger than Grant

Claims of spending “cuts” are exaggerated. Spending has grown, not shrunk, since Grant Robertson.

Bureaucrat Brittle

Promise: Cut back-office staff
‍Reality: Still 33% more bureaucrats than when Labour first took office.

OBEGALx Original

Heroic assumptions, hidden liabilities: Nicola's surplus by 2029 is a fiction based on an invented measure that excludes ACC liabilities.

Debt Delight

Despite Nicola’s promises, borrowing is still near Grant Robertson-era levels.

Bond Market Bonanza

Nicola is borrowing so much, bond markets rank our risk just behind the UK, a major warning sign.

GDP Crumble

Back on track? Per capita GDP is down $3,110 since 2023.

Sources available at the end of the page

Ingredients

Net Core Crown Debt (40%+ of GDP) 
‍Chocolate Emulsifying Adrian Orr (416k) 
‍Spending Thickener, Colours (171, 101), 
‍Stabiliser, Debtioxidant (75 million each day), Floured Accounting (OBEGALx),
‍Artificial Surplus (2029), Spin Dextrin, Political Sweetener (512)

MAY CONTAIN TRACES OF SPIN

SOURCES

1. Government Spending:
Core Crown Expenses (%GDP): 31.8% (2023); 32.5% (2025).
See Audited Financial Statements 2024-25 (at page 177)

2. GDP per capita:
From 2023Q2 to 2025Q2, the real decline in GDP per capita has been 3.87% or $3,110 per person in today’s prices. See Statistics NZ Info share Database.

3. Borrowing:
Gross Debt measure:
‍In 2022/2023, Robertson issued a net extra $16.8 billion in Gross Debt.
In 2024/2025, Willis issued a net extra $27.7 billion in Gross Debt.
Total Crown Borrowings measure:
In 2022/2023, Robertson borrowed an extra $22.8 billion.
In 2024/2025, Willis issued an extra $21.1 billion.
See Audited Financial Statements 2024-25 (at page 177).

4. Public Service numbers:
The reduction in the number of bureaucrats from June 2023 to June 2025 is 0.73%, rounded up to 1%. See Public Service Comission's Public Service Workforce Size.

5. NZ Bond Yields:‍
See Reserve Bank of New Zealand wholesale interest rates (B2) - 10-year secondary market government bond closing yields.

Promoted by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union, 117 Lambton Quay, Wellington 6011